Shigen-to-sozai, Vol.117, No11, pp.931-940.
Modeling Global Supply-Demand Structure for
Mineral Resources - Long-term simulation of copper supply -
Tsuyoshi ADACHIa, Gento MOGIa, Jiro YAMATOMIa, Shinsuke MURAKAMIa and Toru NAKAYAMAa
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a. Department of Geosystem, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan |
| Amount of potential resource and rate of
recycling are the most important keys for
sustainable development of mineral resources.
Several production factors are competing
each other to sustain the demand, which basically
depend on population and economical environment. Focusing on the properties of mineral resources, a long-term global model which describes the supply-demand structure of copper is developed in respect of recycling and substitution. In this model, the production patterns and the effect of recycling to the supply are computed for over the next 150 years. The effect of substitution for copper is also simulated. Under the assumptions of this global model, the primary supply of copper will not sustain the demand in the future. Sustainable supply for copper requires the enlargement of secondary supply by development of recycling technology. |
| KEY WORDS: Sustainable Development, Resource Depletion, Global Model, Copper, Recycling |